In May, Macau's casinos saw a 5.0-percent year-on-year growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR), an outcome analysts described as "better than expected." According to reports from two distinct brokerage firms, the revenue exceeded market consensus predictions. The city’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau disclosed data revealing that Macau’s casino GGR reached MOP21.19 billion, approximately US$2.62 billion, marking this number as the highest monthly tally since the Covid-19 pandemic hit. JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd highlighted in a Sunday memo that the May GGR results significantly surpassed the consensus estimate of a 2 percent increase.
Analysts DS Kim and Selina Li noted, "Recall, the bar wasn't low, i.e., Street expectations were already adjusted upward – from an initial -1 percent year-on-year to +2 percent – to reflect the strong Golden Week, and the clean beat is impressive given the ongoing macro headwinds."
They further explained that this growth represents a recovery rate of 82 percent compared to pre-Covid levels, with the mass and slot segments recovering to between 120 and 121 percent, while VIP gaming stood at around 24 to 25 percent.
Factors Contributing to Growth
Vitaly Umansky, a senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, pointed out that May of this year included an extra Saturday, with weekends traditionally generating more than 20 percent higher GGR than weekdays. Additionally, Umansky noted that the Dragon Boat Festival, which started on May 31 this year, unlike mid-June in the previous year, might have boosted figures. At the beginning of the month, brokerages commented on "strong gaming demand," coinciding with a five-day holiday in mainland China that spanned Labour Day on May 1. The early-May break, running from May 1 to May 5, known as 'May Golden Week,' resulted in Macau authorities recording a daily arrival average of over 170,000 visitors, summing up to over 850,000 by the end of the holiday.
According to Mr. Umansky, "The May Golden Week... was strong and the fall off following the holiday was not as large as some had anticipated." He projected a conservative estimate for June showing a 3.4 percent year-on-year increase in GGR, yet a decrease of 13.7 percent from May.
Outlook for Macau's Gaming Industry
JP Morgan's analysis further shows that the combined GGR for April and May was up 3 percent compared to last year, which translates to a sequential growth of 2 percent, defying the typical second-quarter seasonal dip of up to 3 percent. They indicated, "Even with some moderation in June, second-quarter 2025 estimate appears to be the first 'non-miss' quarter in quite some time, likely growing by 2 percent to 3 percent year-on-year or 1 percent quarter-on-quarter."
Macau's gaming industry's resilience surprised analysts, surpassing expectations with its "better-than-feared" first-quarter performance. JP Morgan officials observed the competitive landscape and cost environment remained stable, with no drastic changes in the high-end segments. Specifically, for the ultra high-end areas such as direct VIPs and premium mass, competition has remained steady since the second half of 2024.
Analysts Kim and Li mentioned operators seemed to maintain current reinvestment levels. Meanwhile, Sands China Ltd appears to enhance promotions and free offerings, although this is seen as an attempt to catch up rather than a pointer to rising competition.
Source: Macau GGR tally in May 'impressive' amid macroeconomic headwinds: analysts, GGRAsia, June 2, 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Jun 03 2025
Jun 03 2025
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