The Macau government has adjusted its gross gaming revenue (GGR) expectations for 2025, lowering the target from MOP240.0 billion to MOP228.0 billion, equivalent to around US$28.2 billion. This adjustment was anticipated by industry analysts, with CreditSights Inc stating in a Thursday memo that the move was "not a complete surprise." Nicholas Chen and David Bussey, analysts at CreditSights, explained that this revision aligns with the soft monthly GGR figures observed since the year's start. They described the new target as more conservative, reflecting the year-to-date sector performance. The updated GGR target suggests a modest year-on-year growth of 0.5 percent, whereas the previous estimate anticipated a more robust 5.8 percent increase on the 2024 GGR of MOP226.78 billion. These revisions have been submitted to Macau’s Legislative Assembly for further discussion.
Impact of Visitor Patterns on GGR
In their communication, CreditSights highlighted the contrasting trends within Macau's tourism and gaming sectors. Despite a "healthy" influx of visitors this year, gaming revenue has been somewhat underwhelming. Analysts suspect this trend points to a higher proportion of base mass visitors, compared to the premium mass and VIP categories, along with an uptick in non-gaming tourists. Official data showed Macau's casino GGR hit MOP21.19 billion in May, marking the highest monthly figure since the pandemic and the first month to exceed the MOP20.0-billion mark in 2023. This surge was attributed to a vibrant influx of visitors during the five-day mainland China holiday in early May, including Labour Day. Such strong visitor numbers have driven the aggregate GGR for the year to nearly MOP97.71 billion, a 1.7-percent improvement from the same period last year. Mr. Chen and Mr. Bussey noted that the current average stands just above the government’s revised monthly target of MOP19 billion, signaling tight competition but favorable outcomes so far.
Future Challenges and Considerations
While the GGR performance appears supported by robust visitor numbers offsetting limited player spending, CreditSights warned of potential risks. Should tourist arrivals decrease or weaken, the sector could struggle to meet these updated revenue goals. It's a reminder of the delicate balance Macau's economy navigates, relying heavily on consistent tourism and favorable gaming revenues. The latest analysis underscores the variable and interconnected dynamics affecting Macau's financial outlook, particularly how macroeconomic shifts can subtly recalibrate expected outcomes. As the legislative process continues with the revised plan, stakeholders will be keenly observing these trends for subsequent decisions.
Source: Macau govt's reduced 2025 GGR forecast not a surprise: CreditSights, GGRAsia.com, June 5, 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Jun 06 2025
Jun 06 2025
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