The Macau government has recently updated its projection for the city’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the year 2025. In a marked revision, authorities have scaled down the expected GGR from a 5.8 percent increase to a mere 0.5 percent growth. This new projection equates to an anticipated revenue of MOP228 billion (USD$28.2 billion) compared to the earlier prediction of MOP240 billion made back in November.
This adjustment was announced by André Cheong Weng Chon, who serves as the spokesman for Macau’s Executive Council and is also the city's Secretary of Administration and Justice. The revision forms part of a broader public budget adjustment for the fiscal year 2025 and is set to be reviewed by Macau’s Legislative Assembly.
Factors Behind the Gaming Revenue Adjustment
Cheong highlighted that the revision reflects current economic conditions in Macau and the realistic performance of its gaming industry. This move underscores the importance of gaming taxes to Macau's economy, which accounted for 87.7 percent of the government’s nearly MOP34.04 billion revenue from January to April 30 this year. Ho In Mui, Deputy Director of the Financial Services Bureau, noted during the briefing that several global and regional factors informed this budgetary adjustment.
She pointed out the influence of "global economic uncertainties" and "changes in consumption patterns," with a particular focus on the spending habits of tourists who fuel Macau's gaming sector. During the first four months of the year, Macau’s GGR averaged around MOP19 billion per month. Ho suggested that while some monthly performances might exceed expectations later in the year, a realistic monthly average of MOP19 billion aligns with a balanced budget approach for Macau's administration.
Analysts' Perspectives and Broader Economic Context
Macau's updated GGR forecast coincides with revised assessments from financial analysts, who are somewhat more optimistic about the region’s gaming industry's potential in 2025. JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd, for instance, projects a 3 percent year-on-year gain in Macau's GGR, foreseeing a total of MOP232.1 billion. Analysts DS Kim and Selina Li from JP Morgan highlight the sector’s promising performance during the first quarter, suggesting that demand has been more resilient than anticipated. Seaport Research Partners also provided a favorable forecast, estimating a 4 percent growth, driven by effective marketing from operators and improving consumer trends in China.
Nonetheless, larger economic challenges persist. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced Macau's overall economic growth forecast owing to ongoing global trade tensions, projecting a GDP rise of 3.6 percent this year, sharply lowering from a previous projection of 7.3 percent. Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky emphasized the potential growth in Macau's 'base-mass' gambling segment, though noting inconsistency in its recovery compared to the robust performance of the premium-mass segment post-Covid-19.
Source: Macau govt now expects only 0.5pct GGR growth in 2025, versus prior estimate of 5.8pct, GGRAsia, June 3, 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Jun 04 2025
Jun 04 2025
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