Macau’s casino industry continues to ride a wave of "robust momentum" in gross gaming revenue (GGR) into the third quarter of 2025, with prospects that this upward trend will persist through the latter half of the year, as noted in a Wednesday report by brokerage firm CLSA. The projection is buoyed by the strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar, which CLSA suggests will favor Macau’s gaming revenue growth.
Several elements contribute to sustaining this momentum, including "industrial profitability" and a "positive stock market performance." CLSA analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan have noted a 0.4 percent appreciation of the renminbi since July, which they believe will lead to increased outgoing travel from mainland China, further boosting Macau's gaming revenue. They highlighted that the recent uplift in the yuan has fueled year-on-year growth in daily GGR, averaging MOP714 million (US$88.9 million) in July and August.
Forecasts for 2025 and 2026
The outlook for Macau's casino sector seems even brighter, as the firm revises its gross gaming revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 1.3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, projecting revenue figures of HKD245.7 billion (US$30.6 billion) for 2025 and HKD255.6 billion (US$31.8 billion) for 2026. The notable performance in August, which recorded the highest monthly GGR since January 2020 with MOP22.16 billion, suggests strong alignment with historical patterns where changes in the yuan-dollar exchange rate closely paralleled GGR trends.
Drawing from past events, specifically from January to November 2017, CLSA illustrates that a 4-percent appreciation in the renminbi then corresponded with a 24-percent increase in average daily GGR. Furthermore, such currency changes have historically prompted players to increase their gaming budgets, as evidenced by a survey of 800 participants in 2025, where 47 percent stated they would raise their budget if the yuan appreciates against the Macau pataca.
Preparing for a Promising Golden Week
Looking ahead, CLSA anticipates a bustling Golden Week in October, capitalizing on improved Chinese consumer confidence. The term "Golden Week" refers to a series of public holidays in China that boost Macau's tourism, the main feeder market for its casinos. This year, the holiday spans from October 1 to October 8, encompassing National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival.
CLSA noted, "From our internal weekly data tracking of Macau’s hotels, we have observed strong bookings – 33 out of 38 tracked hotels are fully booked – and average room prices are trending up nicely," highlighting data recorded as of August 29, which was well in advance of this vacation period. Despite expectations for room prices and occupancy rates to adjust closer to the holiday, this year’s metrics already surpass last year's figures, implying a favorable outlook for Macau’s gaming concessionaires.
Source: CLSA ups 2025 Macau GGR estimate on the strength of the Chinese yuan, GGRAsia, September 4, 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Sep 05 2025
Sep 05 2025
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