CBRE Equity Research has projected a robust growth of 8.3% in Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the year 2026. This growth forecast is notably 2.0 percentage points above the current market consensus, reflecting optimism in the industry’s performance. According to Macau's government data, the GGR for 2025 was recorded at MOP247.40 billion (approximately US$30.65 billion).
The analysts attribute this potential upswing to several factors, including China’s targeted economic growth rate of 4.5% to 5.0% in gross domestic product (GDP). The detailed predictions from CBRE’s analysts, John DeCree and Max Marsh, unveiled in their Monday analysis, emphasize that Macau’s GGR is likely to exceed the full-year 2026 consensus growth of 6.0%.
Factors Supporting Strong Revenue Expansion
Data indicates that Macau's GGR for the first quarter reached MOP65.87 billion, marking a 14.3% increase year-on-year. This momentum suggests a much stronger annual performance than initially anticipated by consensus expectations. For the annual GGR growth to align merely with the consensus level, it would necessitate a significant deceleration to about 3.5% for the remaining quarters of the year, a scenario CBRE analysts find improbable.
The analysts believe that GGR in Macau will outpace the GDP growth in mainland China, driven by the beneficial effects of targeted economic stimulus on Chinese consumer behavior. This positive momentum is also expected to support the growth of earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), responding to recent concerns raised by industry observers.
The first quarter of 2026 demonstrated significant topline growth that, according to CBRE, should bolster EBITDA enhancement for most operators, even for those potentially sacrificing some GGR share for greater profitability.
Macau's Strategic Operator Actions and Future Outlook
The competitive landscape among Macau’s six licensed operators is reportedly stabilizing, with operational expenditure and other competition-related factors playing a role. Analysts observed that in late 2025, operational expenditure and promotional activities saw a notable increase, raising some concerns.
Market-wide commission expenditures rose by 21% on a yearly basis in the fourth quarter, comprising 19.2% of the total GGR, while non-tax operational expenditures escalated by 8.6%. A significant driver behind heightened promotional activities is Las Vegas Sands Corp, the parent company of Sands China Ltd, which has openly acknowledged its strategies aimed at recovering market share.
Despite elevated promotional levels expected to persist, they are anticipated to stabilize throughout 2026, with operational expenditure growth normalizing as investments related to concessions are integrated into existing cost structures. The continued investment in entertainment attractions in Macau is expected to draw additional visitors, particularly from the mass market segment, which has not yet fully regained its previous momentum.
Source: CBRE expects Macau 2026 GGR growth above consensus at 8pct, aiding EBITDA expansion, GGRAsia, April 7, 2026.
Posted by Wizard
Apr 08 2026
Apr 08 2026
Comments
No comments for this article.