Macau's casino industry, a significant contributor to the region's economy, is poised for "low-to-mid-single digit" growth in overall gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the year 2026, according to a recent report from CreditSights Inc, a reputable credit and market research firm. While the sector achieved a notable 9.1 percent increase in 2025, reaching a total GGR of MOP247.40 billion, the challenge lies in the declining GGR per visitor, which experienced a 5 percent year-on-year decrease to MOP6,174.
The analysts from CreditSights, Nicholas Chen and David Bussey, attribute the overall growth largely to the VIP segment, which saw a substantial surge of 24 percent year-on-year in 2025, contributing significantly to the revenue increase. Despite this optimism for 2026, CreditSights warns of a "more difficult path" for the average GGR per visitor, citing a reliance on less affluent Chinese visitors, which may dampen spending expectations.
The Surge of the VIP Segment in 2025
In exploring the dynamics behind Macau's casino performance, the report highlights the robust growth of the VIP gaming segment in 2025 as a key driver of revenue. This segment's growth was fueled by "a positive wealth effect from the equity market rallies seen in China and Hong Kong," as noted by CreditSights. With VIP gaming comprising 27 percent of the total GGR in 2025, up from 24 percent the previous year, the analysts project that the momentum observed in the latter half of 2025 will extend into early 2026.
However, they caution that the back half of 2026 might present challenges in sustaining this growth trajectory. Mass gaming, while constituting 73 percent of the GGR, saw a modest 4 percent increase, indicating a more tempered expansion relative to the VIP sector.
Visitor Dynamics and Economic Implications
Data from Macau’s Statistics and Census reveals that Guangdong remained the primary market for mainland visitors, contributing nearly 59 percent of the 29.02 million arrivals from China in 2025. This figure marked a 30.4 percent increase from the prior year, with visitation numbers exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 33.4 percent.
Nevertheless, CreditSights observes that the anticipated gains in visitor numbers from wealthier regions have largely leveled off, suggesting that future growth in visitor numbers may come from less affluent regions. As a result, the GGR per visitor might not see substantial gains in the foreseeable future. This trend presents both opportunities and limitations as Macau seeks to leverage increased foot traffic while grappling with the economic realities of spending power among its visitor base.
Overall, Macau tourist entries reached a record 40.07 million in 2025, setting a new benchmark for the region despite the evolving economic landscape.
Source: Challenging Growth Path for Macau's Average GGR per Visitor this Year, Says CreditSights, GGRAsia, January 27, 2026.
Posted by Wizard
Jan 27 2026
Jan 27 2026
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