Macau's casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 19 days of October reportedly hit MOP14.85 billion (US$1.86 billion), translating to MOP781 million per day, according to insights from JP Morgan. In a surprising twist, the third week of October saw a significant upswing in revenue after the notably subdued performance during the October Golden Week holiday.
Analysts from JP Morgan, including DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian, shared these insights in a memo circulated on Monday, highlighting a notable rebound in the market's performance. The third week's average daily casino GGR soared to MOP743 million, marking a dramatic increase of 25 percent compared to the second week's MOP593 million daily average.
The second week encompassed the latter part of the October Golden Week holiday, a crucial period for tourism and gambling in Macau driven by the influx of Chinese mainland visitors.
October Golden Week: Factors Influencing Performance
The October Golden Week is a significant period for Macau's casinos due to its importance for Chinese consumers. This holiday, designated by China's State Council, ran from October 1 to 8, coinciding with both China's National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6. JP Morgan analysts attributed the earlier weak performance during Golden Week to several factors, including adverse weather conditions such as Typhoon Matmo, the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the coinciding Formula 1 race in Singapore.
Despite these challenges, the overall market recovery in the following week suggests that the initial downturn was an anomaly rather than a trend. The analysts expressed optimism about the future, stating, "We’ve adjusted October GGR to plus 3 percent to 6 percent year-on-year after the Golden Week, but this probably carries upside risks now given such a strong – and unexpected – rebound last week."
Future Outlook: Projected Growth and Impact
Looking ahead, JP Morgan foresees a robust upward trend in Macau's GGR for the remainder of the year and into the next. They project a growth rate of approximately 10 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, with acceleration to "low-teens" anticipated for the first quarter of 2026. This positive trend is expected to drive a substantial increase in industry earnings, with an estimated 10-percent growth in EBITDA year-on-year for the fourth quarter and a 13-percent rise projected for the first quarter of the following year.
These projections indicate a favorable outlook for Macau's casino sector, with the potential for sustained growth despite previous setbacks. The market's ability to rebound from external challenges underscores the resilience of Macau's gaming industry, positioning it for future success and continued economic contribution.
Source: Macau GGR in October 1-19 at US$1.9bln, on 'surprising' rebound during third week: JPM, GGRAsia, October 20, 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Oct 22 2025
Oct 22 2025
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