In the initial twelve days of October, the gross gaming revenue (GGR) at Macau's casinos reached MOP804 million (US$100.4 million) per day. According to brokerage Jefferies Hong Kong Ltd, this figure was derived from rigorous industry checks. Despite the significant number, it marked a decrease of 5 percent compared to the same period last year, as noted by analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei in their report released on Tuesday.
The analysts explained, "This is below market expectations... due to the disruption caused by Typhoon Matmo and lower-than-expected player quality," elaborating on the influences that led to this downturn.
Impact of Golden Week and Revised Revenue Predictions
The period in discussion included the renowned Golden Week in October, traditionally a peak time for Macau casinos due to the influx of tourists from mainland China. This year, China's State Council scheduled the festive holiday from October 1 to October 8, aligning the National Day on October 1 with the Mid-Autumn Festival, celebrated on October 6 this year. Despite these typically favorable conditions for gaming establishments, the revenue output did not meet expectations.
Based on recent data, Jefferies has adjusted its Q4 GGR forecast to MOP61.2 billion, representing a 6.6 percent growth year-on-year, a downgrade from its earlier forecast of 15.3 percent. As noted, "This leads to a 2025 GGR estimate of MOP242.6 billion, up 7.0 percent," placing it on the lower spectrum of market predictions and yet surpassing government projections. In June, the local government revised its 2025 GGR forecast down to MOP228 billion.
Market Share Dynamics Among Casino Operators
The report delves into the third-quarter performance, highlighting shifts in market share among major casino operators. Sands China Ltd was estimated to capture 23.5 percent, a quarterly increase of 0.7 percentage points. Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd, with 20.7 percent, gained 0.3 percentage points, whereas Wynn Macau Ltd saw the most significant quarterly gain, boosting its market share by 1.3 percentage points to reach 13.3 percent. Conversely, MGM China Holdings Ltd experienced a decline, holding 15.7 percent of the market share, which was a drop of 1.0 percentage point, and SJM Holdings Ltd's presence shrank by 0.4 percentage points, arriving at 12 percent.
Consequently, Jefferies commented, "We expect Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, as the two large mass players, to have benefited from the strong traffic during the summer holidays, and Wynn Macau Ltd and Sands China to have increased market share by stepping up promotion activities." These insights underscore the competitive dynamics and strategic positioning within Macau's casino sector.
Source: Macau casino average daily GGR at US$100mln in first 12 days of October: Jefferies, GGRAsia, October 14, 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Oct 16 2025
Oct 16 2025
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