The latest projections by Citigroup suggest a promising year ahead for Macau's casino industry, with Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) expected to soar to MOP248.6 billion, equivalent to approximately US$31.1 billion, by the end of 2025. This represents a significant year-on-year growth of about 10 percent. The financial institution attributes this anticipated rise to a series of concerts and events organized by the city's casino operators, as well as the burgeoning interest in baccarat side bets.
In their memo, Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau noted, “We are raising our 2025 GGR year-on-year growth forecast from plus 7 percent to plus 10 percent,” anticipating a dynamic 14-percent growth for the remainder of the year.
The Role of Events and Performances
Concerts and substantial events have proven to be a successful formula in Macau, significantly contributing to the GGR. The presence of popular performers such as Hong Kong pop singers Jacky Cheung and Eason Chan has evidently appealed to a large audience, enhancing revenues. Looking forward, much-anticipated events like the NBA China Games at the Venetian Arena, as well as concerts by Chinese artist Lu Han and Hong Kong singer Jackson Wang at the Galaxy Arena, stand to further bolster the market.
Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd and Sands China Ltd are said to be reaping the benefits of controlling their own event venues, allowing them to strategically manage their event calendars. According to the Citi team, both operators are poised to gain market share in the third quarter of 2025.
The Impact of Side Bets on Gaming Revenue
Beyond entertainment, another pivotal element fueling revenue growth is the surge in popularity for side bets, notably enhancing casino hold rates. The city's operators have been actively encouraging patrons to partake in side bets, ranging from progressive jackpots to enticing lucky draw prizes like the Rolex Daytona. Since last year, a variety of baccarat side bets have been adopted, including the 'Small 6/Big 6', ‘Lucky 7’, and ‘Super Lucky 7’, initially introduced around pivotal holiday periods. The adjustments to side bet options over the summer have shown signs of positively impacting casino hold rates, making Citigroup's analysts more optimistic about their GGR forecasts.
The analysts remarked on the consistent passion and enthusiasm of gaming patrons, especially in the premium mass sector, which has shown robust demand. The institution's projections conservatively forecast Macau's casino GGR to average around MOP1.05 billion per day during the approaching October Golden Week. This prediction aligns closely with the average daily GGR from this year's May Labour Day holiday. Known as "Golden Week," these public holidays in mainland China usually coincide with peak periods for Macau tourism, reinforcing the city's potential for increased gaming revenue.
Source: Citi ups Macau's casino GGR forecast to US$31 billion, on the strength of shows, side bets, GGRAsia, September 10, 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Sep 10 2025
Sep 10 2025
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