Banking group Jefferies has projected an optimistic outlook for Macau's casino gross gaming revenue (GGR), with expectations for the full year 2025 to reach a substantial MOP246.41 billion, equivalent to US$30.7 billion. This positive forecast is buoyed by entertainment events, strategic incentives for players by casinos, and the influence of "wealth creation" resulting from robust regional stock market performances.
In a report released on Thursday, Jefferies explained its increased growth projection for the October to December period. The analysis predicts a noteworthy 13.3 percent year-on-year increase for the fourth quarter, with GGR expected to hit MOP67.9 billion. This revision is a significant improvement from the previously estimated 6.6 percent growth. Should the annual totals meet the projected MOP246.41 billion, it would represent an ambitious 8.7 percent enhancement over 2024's figures of MOP226.78 billion.
The strong GGR achievements from October set a promising precedent, with figures reaching MOP24.09 billion—a remarkable 16 percent increase from the previous year. This was the best monthly performance since October 2019, significantly outstripping market expectations of an 11 percent rise, and surpassing Jefferies’ forecast of a 6.1 percent gain. The continuation of this positive momentum into November was noted by Jefferies.
Positive Growth Catalysts in the Casino Sector
As outlined by Jefferies analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei, the first nine days of November have been encouraging, showing strong momentum with average daily revenue (ADR) at MOP711 million, marking a 16 percent year-on-year surge. These promising figures are attributed in part to a resurgence in the stock market, encompassing A-share and Hang Seng indices, alongside a boost from private equity investments and an upswing in initial public offerings (IPOs), all contributing to wealth creation. This wealth creation particularly supports growth in Macau's premium and VIP gaming segments.
Looking at the fourth quarter specifics, players in the field such as Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd are expected to "continue gaining share". This predicted gain is attributed to new facilities which enhance their ability to attract patrons, particularly during festive seasons. Jefferies estimates Sands China's market share for the fourth quarter could climb to 25.0 percent—a 1.10 percentage points sequential gain—while Galaxy Entertainment might see an increase to almost 22.3 percent, representing a 1.88 percentage points rise from the last quarter.
Challenges Amidst Growth for SJM Holdings
However, it's not all smooth sailing for every player in the market. Jefferies analysts pointed to potential challenges for SJM Holdings Ltd due to the closure of satellite casinos and revamping efforts at Grand Lisboa and Hotel Lisboa. These efforts could see SJM’s market share dip by approximately 1 to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter. Particularly significant is the closure announced by SJM Resorts Ltd—the holder of SJM Holdings' gaming rights in Macau—of its Casino Casa Real on November 21.
This closure is part of a series of closures involving satellite casinos, with the first occurring in late July at Casino Grandview, followed by Casino Emperor Palace on October 30, and Casino Legend Palace more recently. Despite these closures, Jefferies states that SJM Holdings remains "confident" about retaining much of the 5-percent market share within the satellite sector market-wide.
However, they acknowledge there may be "circa 1 percent dilution during the transition in the short term" as cited by company management.
Source: Macau 2025 GGR may reach US$31bln, as 4Q growth stays strong: Jefferies, GGRAsia, November 13, 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Nov 13 2025
Nov 13 2025
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