CLSA Increases Macau 2025 GGR Forecast on New Hotels

Brokerage CLSA Ltd has significantly increased its forecast for Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025, anticipating a robust 7.6 percent year-on-year growth, reaching HKD234.8 billion (approximately US$30 billion). This optimistic revision is a substantial improvement from the earlier prediction made in May, which pegged the growth at just 1.8 percent. The catalyst for this upward adjustment includes the opening of new luxury properties in Macau’s Cotai district, alongside favorable currency movements.

Impact of New Luxury Hotels and Currency Changes

The increase in forecast is closely tied to the launch of several premium hotel products expected to stimulate high-spending tourism. These include developments such as Sands China’s Londoner Macao Phase 2, Capella at Galaxy Macau, and new suites at MGM Macau. According to CLSA, these additions will elevate the Cotai entertainment landscape, providing fresh attractions for premium mass segments, which have been stable over recent months. Furthermore, the second quarter of 2025 saw a strengthening of the renminbi by 1.4 percent against the U.S. dollar, enhancing the spending power of Chinese visitors to Macau. Since a majority of Macau’s tourists hail from mainland China, the stronger yuan is considered a key factor driving the anticipated improvement in gaming revenues.

Factors Influencing Market Dynamics

CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang communicated to GGRAsia that the year has seen a steady GGR per day at approximately MOP672 million (US$83.1 million), setting a favorable precedent for the remainder of 2025. In the context of the broader market, the premium mass gambling segment has maintained a steady trajectory over the last 12 months, and the introduction of new premium facilities is expected to bolster this trend further. Notably, events such as Jacky Cheung’s concerts at the Galaxy Arena have already shown positive effects on market-wide GGR in June. However, despite these promising projections, CLSA predicts limited room for expansion in industry-wide margins on earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which they expect will hover around 27.2 percent in the second quarter of 2025, before dipping slightly later in the year. The institution estimates a year-on-year increase of 6.9 percent in second-quarter EBITDA, approaching HKD16 billion, underscoring Macau's recovery momentum.

Source: CLSA ups 2025 Macau GGR growth forecast on China currency, new luxury hotel product, GGRAsia, July 4, 2025.