In the early days of January, Macau's casino industry demonstrated resilience with a gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching MOP8.05 billion, which equates to USD1.00 billion. As per JP Morgan's Monday memo, this translates to a daily income of MOP731 million from January 1 to January 11. This consistent trend is expected to alleviate investors' worries concerning a potential slowdown in gaming demand observed last year, when daily GGR averaged between MOP620 million and MOP630 million.
The institution highlighted that the industry's "checks" revealed a steady GGR of MOP692 million per day for the second week of January, following a lucrative long weekend in the new calendar year where GGR soared to MOP800 million daily. The reference to a "long weekend" applied to the first three days of January, which spanned a Thursday to Saturday during China's official holiday period declared by the State Council.
While in 2025, the holiday was confined to January 1 alone, the benefits of extended playtime on these days were significant for Macau's revenue. JP Morgan expressed confidence in this "steady" GGR trend, projecting an uplift in market sentiment as investors see strong recovery signs as opposed to the slowdown that was observed due to the seasonal and luck-driven factors impacting the VIP gaming segment at the end of the previous year.
Future Growth Forecasts and Market Expectations
Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian from JP Morgan remarked that January's performance could bolster investor confidence, easing earlier concerns about potential declines in demand. They projected a "minimum" 15 percent year-on-year GGR growth for January, which in turn, could enhance Macau's first-quarter GGR by approximately 13 percent.
Looking further into the future, JP Morgan predicts Macau’s full-year GGR in 2026 to expand by 5 to 6 percent. This growth is anticipated to be predominantly driven by mass-table games and slot machine segments, expected to see an expansion of 7 to 8 percent. However, the VIP segment might experience a reduction in GGR by 5 percent year-on-year, influenced by a high base of luck noted in 2025.
The analysts have suggested that despite a gradual slowdown in GGR, profit momentum within the gaming sector is poised to sustain and potentially accelerate beyond 2025. This is viewed in light of potential profitability growth of between 6 and 7 percent year-on-year by 2026, even outstripping GGR expansion predictions for the year.
Profitability and Market Health in 2026
The projected numbers, if realized, would aid in bridging the "flow-through gap" experienced by the industry in 2025, where despite a notable 9 percent GGR increase, the EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization) for the region's industry rose by only 6 percent. In their update, JP Morgan analysts emphasized, "In other words, even with a likely moderating GGR, we see profit momentum sustaining, if not accelerating, in 2026."
These insights depict a stable outlook for Macau's casino sector, reinforcing faith in its potential despite previous volatility and underscoring the sector's ability to adapt and thrive even amid shifting dynamics and external economic pressures. The positive forecasts reflect a poised recovery and potential for lucrative gains within this gaming hub in the future years.
Such forecasts and current stable numbers signify a robust return of visitor engagement and play volume in the casinos, constituting an optimistic perspective on Macau's gaming industry dynamics as international travel and tourism continue to rise post-pandemic.
Source: Macau GGR in first 11 days of January was 'steady' and hit US$1bln says JPM, GGRAsia, January 12, 2026.
Posted by Wizard
Jan 13 2026
Jan 13 2026
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