Macau's Economic Growth Slows in Third Quarter

In the three months ending September 30, Macau's economic growth experienced a notable deceleration, primarily due to a downturn in the gaming services sector. According to preliminary data released by Macau's Statistics and Census Service, the city's GDP increased by a mere 0.1 percent in real terms compared to the same period last year, reaching MOP106.06 billion (approximately US$13.13 billion). This marks a sequential slowdown from Q2's 0.3 percent growth and a significant drop from the 7.1 percent expansion observed in Q1.

The decline in "exports of gaming services," which fell by 4.8 percent year-on-year, contributed significantly to the economic slowdown. This reduction was attributed to a "short-term adjustment in gross revenue from games of chance," influenced by external environmental factors. September represented the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year declines in Macau's casino gross gaming revenue, reflecting broader challenges within the sector.

Tourism Offsets Gaming Slump with Visitor Surge

Despite the relative weakness in gaming, not all was bleak for Macau's economy. The Statistics and Census Service reported a 6.6 percent annual increase in the "exports of other tourism services," buoyed by a surge in visitor numbers during the peak summer travel season and ongoing tourism promotion activities.

The increased visitor influx has been instrumental in balancing some of the negative impacts from the gaming sector's contraction. Additionally, there was a robust 17.2 percent increase in gross fixed capital formation, facilitated by a rapid progression in both public and private construction projects. This development considerably supported economic activity during the quarter. For the first three quarters of 2023, Macau's GDP registered a 2.9 percent year-on-year growth in real terms, accumulating a total of MOP316.13 billion. This growth benefitted significantly from a 2.8 percent boost in private consumption expenditure alongside the continued vibrancy in tourism.

Future Outlook and Economic Dependencies

Macau's reliance on the casino industry and tourism, particularly from mainland China, continues to expose the city's economy to external shocks and cyclical fluctuations, as noted in a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) consultation paper. The IMF identified the potential for increased competition in the gaming industry, a possible economic slowdown in China, renewed global trade tensions, and financial market volatility as critical downside risks to Macau's economic stability.

Looking ahead, the IMF forecasts a moderation in Macau’s real GDP growth rates, expecting it to decelerate from 4.7 percent in 2025 to 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.1 percent in 2027. These projections reflect the anticipated persistence of external headwinds that could challenge Macau’s economic trajectory. Amid these challenges, Macau continues to navigate its economic future with a blend of gaming and tourism services, trying to balance growth and stability in a fluctuating global environment.

Source: Macau’s GDP growth further slowed in 3Q amid weaker gaming performance: govt. GGR Asia, October 30, 2026

Posted by Wizard
Nov 02 2026