May saw Macau's casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) exceed expectations, bolstered by a strong performance in the premium play sector. This was despite the challenges faced by a weaker VIP segment, primarily attributed to a low hold. According to Seaport Research Partners, May's figures were stronger than predictions, with the underlying demand remaining robust.
Vitaly Umansky, a Seaport analyst, highlighted that the GGR was adversely affected by low VIP hold, similar to the issues faced in April. Without this factor, the growth could have been adjusted to about 12 to 13 percent.
Current Market Trends and Future Predictions
Macau's casino GGR rose by 6.7 percent year-on-year during May, reaching slightly over MOP22.61 billion. Umansky's report emphasizes that the market's core demand stays healthy, attributed to vibrant premium-play activities and ongoing liquidity support. He also mentions that while the markets had seen rapid growth previously, the rate is expected to moderate.
Seaport's projections for Macau's GGR indicate an increase of 6.2 percent for the full-year 2026, though growth in the second half of the year may dip below 4 percent unless there is a significant uptick in demand or liquidity.
Key Drivers and Challenges Ahead
Seaport identifies the premium gaming segment as the primary driver behind Macau's market recovery, with premium-mass revenue estimated to be about 170 percent above the levels seen in 2019. In contrast, the base-mass play remains about 15 percent lower than pre-pandemic figures, largely due to a decline in overnight visitors, which remain a critical weakness. An improvement in the overnight base-mass visitation could significantly bolster growth, especially for operators heavily exposed to this segment.
Other factors such as the introduction of smart gaming tables and the growing popularity of baccarat side-betting are seen as potential revenue boosters. Side bets reportedly surpass 3 percent of baccarat volume and are on the rise. These side bets offer a higher edge to casinos than traditional baccarat, although they may decrease overall game duration as players lose more rapidly, thus potentially increasing GGR per player.
Source: Macau’s May GGR above expectations but negatively impacted by low hold: Seaport, GGRAsia, June 2, 2026.
Posted by Wizard
Jun 02 2026
Jun 02 2026
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