Macau's casino industry is experiencing a remarkable upswing, with promising projections for the first quarter of 2026. According to a recent analysis by Morgan Stanley, the city’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to rise by 18% year-on-year, driven by a solid performance in January and optimistic forecasts for February.
The banking group noted this upward trend following January’s impressive GGR results, marking a 24% increase from the previous year and surpassing the market's median expectation of an 18.5% rise. This positive momentum has analysts predicting continued growth as all key components align favorably for Macau’s bustling gambling sector.
February Shows Strong Potential Amid CNY Festivities
Analysts at Morgan Stanley, including Praveen Choudhary, Anson Lee, and Stephen Grambling, forecast that Macau will see a substantial boost in February, traditionally one of the busiest periods for the region’s gaming industry. The Chinese New Year (CNY) festivities, which attract a significant influx of visitors, are anticipated to further elevate GGR during this time. This year's CNY celebrations are scheduled from February 15 to 23, translating into a nine-day holiday decreed by China’s State Council, which is likely to spur increased activity in Macau’s casinos.
Deutsche Bank’s Steven Pizzella corroborates this view, projecting February’s GGR to reach approximately US$2.788 billion, marking a 12.8% year-on-year increase, eclipsing the Consensus Metrix's forecast of 11.5%.The alignment of CNY within this period posits a significant revenue surge, reinforcing the positive outlook for the first quarter.
Future Perspectives and Industry Valuation
Despite some concerns over weaker margins and competitive promotions affecting the latter parts of 2025, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the industry's performance in the early months of 2026. The analysts suggest that strong results from the first quarter could lead to favorable earnings revisions. Additionally, they highlight that the sector's valuation remains attractive.
The industry's enterprise value relative to its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) stands at 8.1 times, below the past 15-year average of 12.8 times. This suggests there is considerable potential value for investors. As the year progresses, all eyes will be on how Macau’s casinos capitalize on these trends and translate projected gains into sustained success, further cementing their pivotal role in the global gaming landscape.
Source: Macau GGR in 1Q Could Rise 18pct Y-o-Y After Strong January and Likely Good CNY: Analysts. GGRAsia, February 2, 2026.
Posted by Wizard
Feb 02 2026
Feb 02 2026
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