Recent data from Macau's gaming industry has revealed that gross gaming revenue (GGR) has experienced a marked shift leading into the Chinese New Year period. According to banking group Citi, referencing industry sources, the revenue from the first eight days of February witnessed a decrease of approximately 14 percent when compared to January's daily average.
Nevertheless, the analysis projects an optimistic outlook for the January-February period, forecasting a 13.5 percent increase year-on-year for combined revenues, taking into account the upcoming festive season. The institution, in a Monday briefing, reported that Macau’s casinos have generated approximately MOP5.0 billion (equivalent to USD 621.1 million) in the early days of February.
The current-day operational activity translates to about MOP625 million daily, which reflects a 14 percent drop from approximately MOP730 million per day in January and an 11 percent decline from a daily revenue rate of MOP705 million noted in February 2025.
Factors Influencing Revenue Reduction
The observed dip in gaming revenue run rates has been attributed to the anticipated seasonal slowdown preceding the Chinese New Year. This annual pattern typically sees decreased consumer activity as preparations for the holiday commence. Kenneth Feng Xiaofeng, CEO of MGM China Holdings Ltd, remarked during a recent earnings call that the market remains robust despite an evident reduction in tourism demand as holidays approach.
This year, the Chinese New Year is set to fall on February 17, with celebrations extending over a nine-day holiday from February 15. This timeline differs notably from 2025, when the holiday was on January 29, with an eight-day period decreed by China’s State Council.
Illustrating the impact of this shift, Citi’s commentary on early February performance relayed that VIP gaming volumes have seen a decline between 12 to 14 percent month-on-month, along with a similar dip for mass GGR between 11 to 13 percent. Despite the slowdown, the VIP segment, in particular, continues to maintain a "largely normal" hold rate according to the banking institution.
Projections for February and Beyond
Looking forward, Citi maintains its February 2026 GGR forecast at MOP20.5 billion, marking a modest increase of 4 percent compared to the previous year. This projection suggests daily average revenues could rise to approximately MOP775 million for the remainder of the month. When combined with January figures, the expected GGR for the two months is unwavering at MOP43.1 billion, supporting a notable 13.5 percent annual growth despite shifting holiday dates.
These projections underscore a potential recovery and resilience in Macau’s gaming industry, reflecting the ever-present demand both in domestic and international circles, which seems likely to bolster the sector through the seasonal ebb.
In conclusion, despite experiencing a dip in early February, Macau’s casinos are projected to end the January-February period on a high note, demonstrating significant year-on-year growth as the industry continues adapting to seasonal influences and consumer behaviors.
Source: Pre-CNY slowdown in Macau GGR, but Jan and Feb still tracking 13.5pct gain y-o-y: Citi, GGRAsia, February 9, 2026.
Posted by Wizard
Feb 09 2026
Feb 09 2026
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