Macau's casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) hit MOP18.29 billion (US$2.28 billion) in September. This figure marks a 17.5% decline from the previous month, August, as reported by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Analyst Steven Pizzella highlighted this reduction, noting that the "14.7 percent sequential decrease per day was approximately 920 basis points lower than historical trends."
Typically, the average sequential decline from August to September between 2013 and 2019 was about -5.5%. August had achieved the best performance since January 2020 before the pandemic. September's declining revenue follows a temporary 33-hour closure of Macau's casinos due to Super Typhoon Ragasa. Initial expectations suggested the storm might have reduced September’s GGR by at least 5%. However, despite the interruptions, the year-on-year growth for September still rose by 6%.
Impact of Natural Disasters and Resilience Predictions
In a recent memo, brokerage JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd appeared unfazed by the recent typhoon’s impact on Macau’s GGR. Their note, titled “Typhoon? What typhoon? Macau stays resilient,” estimated that the typhoon may have affected September's GGR by 5 to 10%, roughly equivalent to three weekdays. Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian believe the storm's absence would have meant double-digit growth for the month.
Forecasts by Vitaly Umansky, an analyst at Seaport Research Partners, suggest that Macau’s casino market could see an 8.4% growth for the entirety of 2025. This growth is anticipated to escalate to 12.4% in the fourth quarter, compared to an 8.3% increase in the first half. These predictions are partly based on "increased marketing" and "continued ease of money outflows," alongside "robust visa issuance," specifically from mainland China, Macau’s primary tourism source.
Future Growth and Market Dynamics
As Macau positions itself for future growth, entertainment events are expected to bolster casino demand, noted Umansky. The analyst also stated that a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and China could bolster consumer confidence, potentially stimulating tourism to Macau. Such improvements could aid in the recovery of the mass market segment.
Analysts from different brokerages anticipate October’s GGR to surge by as much as 13% year-on-year, reaching approximately MOP23 billion, buoyed by solid performance during the National Day Golden Week. This period is a significant time for Chinese tourists, with the lunar calendar-based Mid-Autumn Festival also contributing to higher visitor numbers. The Chinese State Council has designated the holiday span from October 1 to 8, marking it as a peak period for Macau's casinos.
Source: Analyst flag likely 8.4pct Macau GGR growth in full-year 2025, GGRAsia, October 3, 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Oct 06 2025
Oct 06 2025
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