Macau experienced a decrease in its casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 20 days of September, according to UBS, a prominent banking institution. The average daily GGR stood at MOP610 million (US$75.5 million), which falls short of market predictions.
This drop represents a roughly 14-percent decline compared to the previous month, significantly attributed to weaknesses in the premium gambling segments. UBS’s latest memo highlights this downturn based on its internal channel checks.
Impact of Market Expectation and VIP Hold
Market analysts initially expected Macau’s average daily GGR for September to reach between MOP650 million and MOP670 million. Meeting this expectation would have resulted in a more modest month-on-month fall of about 5 to 8 percent, while still marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 7 to 10 percent.
However, the reality was that GGR averaged MOP614 million daily from September 14 to 20, a slight improvement from MOP586 million during the prior week. This increase is thought to be driven by volatility in the VIP hold.
Despite this, the daily average GGR for the month faced a flat year-on-year comparison and a 14-percent monthly decrease. This seasonal decline was deeper than historical patterns witnessed during the years 2015 to 2019.
"The sequential decline appears to be led by the premium segments, coinciding with the implementation of the individual income tax rules governing offshore trusts," UBS observed. Among the segments, mass market daily revenue fell by 13 to 16 percent month-on-month, while the daily run-rate for VIP volume saw a reduction of 15 to 18 percent, with a VIP hold rate ranging between 3.4 and 3.7 percent.
New Tax Regulations and Future Outlook
The tax regulations mentioned by UBS were instigated by Chinese authorities imposing a tax from July 24 on individual income from assets placed in offshore trusts by Chinese tax residents. As per a July announcement from China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration, a 20-percent tax is imposed on any appreciation in value when shares, property, or other assets are transferred into offshore trusts.
Unpaid taxes on assets placed in such trusts from January 2023 and trust income received before 2026 must be settled by October 22 to avoid penalties. Reuters indicated that these new tax rules attempt to close a ‘loophole’ used by wealthy individuals to keep their fortunes abroad.
In light of these changes, UBS shared insights on the booking status for the upcoming October Golden Week – a significant holiday for mainland Chinese. Their survey unveiled a 20-percent year-on-year rise in average hotel prices, covering 31 hotels. As of Monday, a check of hotels within Macau’s casino resort complexes showed that 21 out of 36 brands had sold out for at least five nights of the forthcoming festival according to GGRAsia’s research into booking engines.
Source: Macau Sept 1-20 daily GGR down 14pct m-o-m on premium weakness: UBS, GGRAsia, September 23, 2026.
Posted by Wizard
Sep 23 2026
Sep 23 2026
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