Macau's casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for March reached MOP19.66 billion (US$2.45 billion), a figure that JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd described as "wasn't bad at all" in their Tuesday memo. This amount represented a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percent, although it experienced a sequential decline of 0.4 percent, according to official data. The March GGR was noted to be 1 percent above JP Morgan's estimates and the market consensus, which had anticipated flat growth. Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Mufan Shi from JP Morgan highlighted that this translated to a daily GGR of MOP634 million, a trend that mirrored the performance seen in the first two months of 2025. Despite March being a seasonally slow month, the GGR tally was deemed "pretty respectable."
First Quarter Stability and Future Projections
The first quarter of 2025 saw stable casino GGR in Macau, totaling MOP57.66 billion, which was up 0.6 percent from the same period in 2024, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. JP Morgan analysts pointed out that on a daily run-rate basis, this indicated modest growth of 2 percent year-on-year and 3 percent quarter-on-quarter, marking the highest run-rate in over 20 quarters. They expressed optimism about the potential for growth to improve in the second half of 2025, citing easier comparisons starting from June. Consequently, JP Morgan maintained their 2025 GGR growth forecast at 3 percent, expecting growth to be between 0 to 1 percent in the first half and 5 to 6 percent in the second half.
Seaport Research Partners, another brokerage, noted that the March GGR was weaker than their initial forecast but slightly surpassed the Asia sell-side Bloomberg estimate of 0 percent year-on-year growth. Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky from Seaport observed that the end of March was not significantly affected by the announced law enforcement action against two alleged criminal groups involved in money movement, as the daily GGR average in the last week of March remained consistent with the first three weeks.
Seaport anticipates a slight decline in April GGR, projecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percent and a month-on-month drop of 5.8 percent, which aligns with the historical average month-on-month decline of 5.1 percent. Umansky mentioned that their April estimate might be slightly impacted by the recent crackdown on money changers. Despite this, Seaport expects casino GGR to grow by 6.5 percent in 2025, with a higher growth rate of 10.9 percent in the second half and 2.2 percent in the first half.
Government's Fiscal Outlook and GGR Targets
On Tuesday, Macau's Secretary for Economy and Finance, Tai Kin Ip, expressed concerns about the city's public fiscal outlook for 2025, warning that the casino GGR might not meet the government's target of MOP240 billion. Mr. Tai noted that the expected monthly average of MOP20 billion in GGR was not achieved in the first three months of 2025.
He stated, "This year's fiscal revenue may not be as optimistic as expected," during a seminar hosted by the Macao Chamber of Commerce. The city imposes a 40 percent tax on Macau GGR, which last year generated nearly MOP88.13 billion in revenue for public finances.
Source: Macau March GGR 'not bad', April likely flat as govt says 2025 tally might fall short of target, GGRAsia, April 2, 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Apr 03 2025
Apr 03 2025
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