Macau's Gaming Revenue Stabilizes Amid Forecasts

Macau’s gaming industry witnessed a significant stabilization in gross gaming revenue (GGR) following the Lunar New Year holiday, according to a memo by JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd. Analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li reported that demand for Macau’s gambling activities from February 5 onwards was “better than feared.” Despite optimistic post-holiday results, the projection for full-year GGR growth remains modest, possibly increasing by only 1 to 4 percent year-on-year in 2025. This estimate falls short of the sell-side analysts’ consensus, which anticipated approximately a 5 percent growth for the year.

February GGR Insights and Projections

The February gross gaming revenue in Macau is anticipated to range between MOP18.3 billion (approximately US$2.28 billion) and MOP19.4 billion. This translates to a year-on-year fluctuation from a 1-percent decrease to a potential 5-percent growth. Analysts highlighted the robust demand following the Lunar New Year, noting that the post-holiday GGR was MOP725 million per day, a performance that mitigated some of the initial fears of a decline during the festive period. While the daily GGR from February 1 to 5 was strong at MOP900 million, it nonetheless did not fully meet investor expectations. This activity was recorded during the official Lunar New Year holidays in China, which spanned January 28 to February 4. This period is often referred to as the 'Chinese New Year (CNY) Golden Week.'

Current Trends and Future Expectations

During the first nine days of February, Macau's casinos generated MOP7.4 billion in gross gaming revenue, aligning with the forecasted daily rate of MOP800 million to MOP850 million made by JP Morgan. Although the month-to-date figures fall within expected levels, they are at the lower end of the spectrum. Despite positive signals in recent demand, cautious optimism remains about the overall fiscal year outcomes. The stabilization of Macau's GGR post-holiday season provides a mixed message of steadying performance but still short of the growth levels predicted by some analysts.

Source: February Macau GGR has stabilised, but full-year growth likely below consensus: JPM, GGRAsia, February 10, 2025. 

Posted by Wizard
Feb 10 2025