September is projected to bring a significant boost to Macau's casino gross gaming revenue (GGR), with growth estimated at approximately 13% compared to the same period last year. This follows encouraging figures from August, where the GGR rose by 12.2% year-on-year, reaching nearly MOP22.16 billion (US$2.76 billion). Data revealed by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau highlights August as the leading monthly performance since January 2020, and only marginally surpassing July’s count of MOP22.13 billion.
Analytical Perspectives on Projected Growth
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc expressed their expectations in a recent note, estimating September's GGR to hit US$2.45 billion. This prediction aligns with a 13.6% rise year-on-year, slightly higher than the investment industry consensus of a 10% growth forecast. Analyst Steve Pizzella noted the conservative nature of their estimates when compared to the trends observed between 2013 and 2019. Historically, September has seen an average monthly dip of 5.5% compared to August's figures. Applying this historical data to the present yields a year-on-year improvement potential of approximately 17.5%, reflecting a substantial leap for the current year.
On a different note, Seaport Research Partners echoed a similar optimism with a 13% growth projection for September’s GGR. Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky highlighted the potential threat of weather disruptions such as typhoons, citing previous years' experiences where adverse weather conditions had a significant impact. However, the overall outlook remains positive, anticipating robust marketing initiatives and favorable economic conditions to drive growth. Umansky also mentioned the promising prospect of a trade deal between the United States and China, which could further uplift consumer confidence, positively influencing travel to Macau.
Factors Influencing Macau's Casino Sector Revival
With three consecutive months of double-digit year-on-year growth, analysts are optimistic about the sustainability of this trend. JP Morgan Securities commented on the strength observed in August, which marked the "strongest" monthly GGR since the start of the pandemic. Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian noted that strong entertainment options and an increase in visitors contributed to this positive outcome. However, they cautioned that the lower gaming hold in August might have diminished growth by approximately 2%. Looking ahead, the trajectory of Macau's casino revenue will depend greatly on external economic factors and internal marketing strategies.
As visa issuance becomes more streamlined and money outflows ease, consumer confidence is expected to rise, translating to sustained growth in GGR. Any diplomatic resolution on trade between major economies, alongside improving consumer sentiment in China, could further enhance Macau's attractiveness as a gaming and leisure destination, reinforcing growth in the months ahead.
Source: Macau September casino GGR likely to increase by 13pct year-on-year: brokerages, GGRAsia, September 2, 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Sep 03 2025
Sep 03 2025
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