Macau's casino sector continues to thrive, as highlighted by JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd's recent report. According to the briefing, November's gross gaming revenue (GGR) from Macau's casinos has surpassed market predictions for the seventh month out of eleven in the current year. This assessment by the brokerage followed the official announcement that recorded Macau's GGR at MOP21.09 billion (approximately US$2.63 billion). The figure signifies a remarkable 14.4 percent year-on-year increase, marking an extraordinary recovery against market forecasts.
Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian from JP Morgan expressed that the November tally "very comfortably beat the (already moved-up) consensus of circa 10 percent year-on-year, which is impressive considering the typically slow seasonality of the month." The reported recovery—a notable 92 percent of the pre-Covid level—represents the strongest since the pandemic began.
Improvements in Market Segments
Breaking down the numbers, JP Morgan estimated significant growth across different market segments. The mass play segment, which includes slot machines, experienced a rise between 12 to 13 percent on a year-on-year basis, achieving over 125 percent of the pre-Covid level.
More notably, the VIP sector recorded a substantial 30 percent year-on-year increase, reaching 30 to 35 percent of the performances seen before the pandemic. Such figures indicate a diverse and rapid recovery across the various divisions of Macau's gambling industry.
Outlook for December and Future Growth
Looking forward, JP Morgan analysts predict an optimistic close to the year. They anticipate December's GGR to reflect a growth rate exceeding 15 percent, with potential upside risks suggesting even higher expansions. Analysts noted, "December could finish 2025 with a bang. We currently model December GGR to grow 15-percent-plus, but all signs point to upside risk." Such outcomes could result in the fourth-quarter GGR expanding by 15 to 16 percent year-on-year and 5 to 6 percent quarter-on-quarter, potentially marking it as the best quarter in six years.
This projection far exceeds JP Morgan's initial estimates and consensus, which stood at around 13 percent growth year-on-year. The report stresses the role of "sustained double-digit profit growth" and "ongoing Street [investment sector] upgrades" in enticing long-term investors back to the market and facilitating a re-rating of depressed stock multiples. This momentum positions Macau's casino industry for a period of robust growth and recovery as it moves beyond the pandemic era.
Source: Macau’s November GGR best recovery rate from pre-pandemic times: analysts, GGRAsia, December 1, 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Dec 01 2025
Dec 01 2025
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