Fitch Ratings Inc has projected that Macau's gross domestic product (GDP) will experience a 4.0 percent growth by the year 2026. This optimistic forecast is underpinned by expectations of a recovery in the tourism sector. According to the rating agency, the city's casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) is anticipated to recover to approximately 88 percent of its 2019 levels next year. Despite this positive outlook, the predicted growth represents a deceleration compared to the estimated 4.6-percent GDP growth for the current year and the 8.8-percent increase forecasted for 2024.
Gaming Revenue and Economic Influence
Recent reports indicate that Macau's GDP expanded by 4.2 percent in the first nine months of 2025, based on year-on-year real terms data released by the city's Statistics and Census Services. The economic output during this period was recorded at 88.4 percent of that seen in the same period of 2019. In terms of casino GGR, figures for the first eleven months of this year showed a total of MOP226.52 billion (US$28.26 billion), marking an 8.6-percent year-over-year increase.
Looking ahead, Macau's government has projected the casino GGR to reach MOP236 billion for the full year 2026, as disclosed in its fiscal budget plan announced last month. Fitch noted in a recent memo that continued growth in gaming tourism is expected to support Macau's economic growth, albeit potentially at a slower rate due to "weaker … economic conditions" on the Chinese mainland.
These conditions might affect the sentiment of outbound Chinese tourists, although this impact is expected to be partially ameliorated by beneficial visa policies, ongoing investments in non-gaming sectors, and enhancements in tourism infrastructure.
Economic Resilience and Future Prospects
Fitch Ratings has emphasized that despite challenges, Macau is likely to continue strengthening its fiscal buffers through solid gaming revenue collections in 2026. The rating agency's analysis affirms Macau's long-term issuer default rating at 'AA', with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in the region's economic stability.
As the local economy adjusts to the changing dynamics of the gaming industry and external economic conditions, Macau's strategic investment in infrastructure and diversification of its tourism offerings are expected to contribute positively to its resilience.
While the forecasted GDP growth for 2026 shows moderation compared to previous years, it underscores a steady recovery trajectory driven by the combination of bolstered tourism inflows and strategic fiscal management. This outlook aligns with Macau's ongoing commitment to maintaining economic robustness amidst global economic uncertainties. As such, while challenges remain, the region's economic strategies are set to propel continuous growth and development in the coming years.
Source: Macau’s gaming recovery moderating, but still supporting solid 2026 GDP growth: Fitch, GGRAsia, December 10, 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Dec 10 2025
Dec 10 2025
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