Macau's casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for February 2026 reached nearly MOP20.63 billion, equivalent to USD 2.56 billion. While this figure represents an 18.7% decline compared to February 2019, a month that also included Chinese New Year, it marked a 4.5% year-over-year increase compared with February 2025.
Deutsche Bank's analyst Steven Pizzella offered insights into these numbers, highlighting that February 2019 also included the Chinese New Year celebrations, which typically amplify gaming revenues. Despite the comparative decline from 2019, the forecast for the first quarter remains optimistic, with Deutsche Bank projecting GGR to hit USD 8.1 billion, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year increase.
Meanwhile, analysts from JP Morgan Securities note that the initial slow demand at the beginning of the Lunar New Year did not hinder the overall positive outlook for the quarter. The acceleration in the daily run-rate towards the end of February contributed to this upward trend.
Influence of the Lunar New Year on Casino Earnings
The Lunar New Year, traditionally a peak period for Macau's tourism and gaming sectors, exhibited an unusual pattern this year. According to JP Morgan Securities' analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian, February's GGR surprised to the upside, given the mellow start to the New Year festivities.
They identified a marked increase in gaming revenue towards the end of February, with the daily GGR run-rate reaching around MOP1 billion, significantly higher than the MOP785 million recorded during the initial New Year week. Macau's recent visitor data mirrored this trend as well, with the region welcoming just over 1.55 million visitors during the nine-day holiday from February 15 to 23, a period declared as a holiday in mainland China, the primary source of Macau's tourism.
JP Morgan attributed the muted performance at the start of the New Year celebrations not to a lack of demand but to a 'timing dynamic.' They noted that this year, peak activity was delayed, occurring later during the festive week compared to previous years.
Analyzing February's Casino Performance in Context
Steven Pizzella of Deutsche Bank drew comparisons for February 2026's performance with that of multiple pre-pandemic months. February's 18.7% drop against 2019 levels marks a stronger deviation than those recorded in January this year and November and December of the previous year.
This comparison against historical GGR numbers, available from the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, reveals the broader implications of these revenue shifts. Moreover, February's figures also represented a sequential decline of 8.9% from January 2026.
Normally, from 2013 to 2019, February would see an average revenue uptick of 15.5% compared to January. However, Pizzella emphasized that the unique timing of the Chinese New Year this year may skew this comparison.
Overall, despite these deviations, the sentiment surrounding Macau's gaming industry in 2026 remains positive, showing potential for low double-digit year-on-year growth.
Source: Macau 1Q GGR growth likely 11pct plus, despite slow demand at start of CNY: analysts, GGRAsia, March 2, 2026.
Posted by Wizard
Mar 02 2026
Mar 02 2026
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