In January this year, Macau's casinos experienced a noted reduction in the number of high-stakes "whales"—a term used for players betting HKD100,000 (approximately US$12,846) or more—when compared to January 2024. This decline in high rollers and their wagering trends was identified in Citigroup's January survey, which drew direct comparisons to its equivalent survey from the previous year. The shift in gambling behavior comes as China approaches the Chinese New Year (CNY) Golden Week, which this year occurs earlier (January 28 to February 4) compared to the previous year (February 10 to February 17). The earlier occurrence of this seasonal holiday has contributed to a "pre-CNY slowdown," an observation not seen at the start of the previous year, as highlighted by Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.
Decreased Whale Activity and Variable Wager Trends
The most significant change observed was a drop in the presence of whales—24 were spotted this January compared to 27 from the same period last year. Additionally, the wager per player also decreased, with an average of HKD20,160 noted in the recent survey against HKD21,581 in January 2024. However, Citigroup reported an upswing in overall premium mass wagers, achieving HKD12.8 million, accounting for an 11% increase compared to the previous year. This increase was driven primarily by a 19% rise in the count of premium mass players, reaching 636 in the latest monthly survey. When analyzing market performance among casino operators, Sands China Ltd led with an industry wager market share of approximately 28%, followed closely by Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd at around 27%. Wynn Macau Ltd saw a reduction in its share of premium mass wagers, attributed to ongoing renovations at the Wynn Encore in the Macau peninsula, potentially impacting their draw of high-stakes gamblers.
Smart Table Adoption and Impact on Gaming Revenue
Despite an overall drop in the number of whales recorded, those that were present displayed a notable increase in their wagering amounts. Citigroup mentioned that the average wager per whale reached HKD195,000, marking a 37% increase from January 2024 (HKD142,778). Such a surge was bolstered by activities from significant players, including a standout bet of HKD1 million at the Londoner Macao. Even excluding this anomaly, the average wager still showcased a 12% rise.
The survey also touched upon technological advancements in Macau's gaming sector, particularly the integration of "smart tables." These tables enhance game efficiency, allowing for more plays per hour. Galaxy Entertainment Group has made substantial strides with its smart tables, becoming the second operator after MGM China Holdings Ltd to fully implement them across its mass baccarat gaming areas. This shift includes 74 new smart tables at Galaxy Macau and an additional nine at StarWorld Hotel.
Citigroup projected that Sands China's operations are now "80 percent smart," Wynn Macau's operations are approximately "60 percent smart," and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd sits at around "50 percent smart." Such technological integration is pivotal to future growth, with Citigroup forecasting a 7% Macau Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) growth by 2025, driven largely by these innovations. In terms of financial perspectives, Citigroup maintains its forecast for January's casino GGR in Macau to reach MOP19.0 billion (US$2.37 billion), though this would reflect a 2% decrease compared to the previous year. However, expectations are that the blend of January and February's performances could yield a year-on-year improvement.
Source: Fewer Macau Whales Sighted Pre-CNY: Citi, GGRAsia, January 2025.
Posted by Wizard
Jan 13 2025
Jan 13 2025
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