Citigroup's Revised GGR Projection for Macau's August Casinos

On Monday, banking giant Citigroup adjusted its predictions for the gross gaming revenue (GGR) of Macau's casinos for August, elevating the forecast from MOP21.50 billion to MOP21.75 billion, which translates to approximately US$2.70 billion. This update suggests a significant 10 percent increase compared to the same period last year, bringing the gaming hub closer to its pre-pandemic revenue levels by achieving about 90 percent of the August 2019 figures.

In one of its recent memos, Citigroup analysts highlighted this optimistic forecast owing to consistent performance in the region's gaming industry. The report provided by analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau indicates that the accrued GGR for the initial 17 days of August has likely reached an approximate MOP12.1 billion. They elaborated on this progress by noting that over the recent week, from August 11 to 17, the daily GGR ran at about MOP729 million. This figure marks a 4-percent increase over the daily average of the first 10 days of August, and is significantly 14 percent higher compared to the same time frame in the previous year of 2024.

Resilience in Macau's Gaming Amid Weather Warnings

Despite adverse weather conditions flagged by a 'black rainstorm' warning mid-week, the momentum in Macau's gaming activities remained robust. According to industry insiders cited in Citigroup's analysis, this stability attests to the avid interest of players continuing to flock to the gaming tables. While there was a reported slight decline in VIP volumes, down by about 2 to 4 percent monthly, mass market GGR experienced a slight growth of roughly 1 to 2 percent.

This shift indicates a larger participation from everyday, less-affluent patrons, balancing the revenue streams from the upscale gaming sectors. Citigroup also noted an improvement in the VIP hold rate during this period compared to the earlier part of August. The revised prediction of MOP21.75 billion for the remainder of the month translates to an expected daily average haul of MOP689 million, sustaining a steady revenue stream even amid occasional disruptions.

Macau's July GGR Performance Sets a Positive Precedent

Macau's casino industry has been experiencing a recovery pace reminiscent of pre-pandemic times, as echoed in the July GGR figures. Last month witnessed the best monthly revenue collection since January 2020, right before COVID-19 paralyzed the region's vibrant gaming sector, achieving a notable 19 percent year-over-year increase with nearly MOP22.13 billion recorded. The significant gains in July set a precedent, creating a momentum that seems to be carrying into August.

While challenges like natural disturbances could temper these advances, the region’s allure remains strong, hinting at a robust bounce-back trajectory for Macau's pivotal gaming industry. These revised projections by Citigroup contribute to a cautiously optimistic view of Macau's recovery and help reaffirm investor confidence as the global tourism and hospitality sectors continue to navigate the lingering impacts of the pandemic.

Source: "Citi raises forecast for Macau’s August GGR to US$2.7bln," GGRAsia, August 18, 2025

Posted by Wizard
Aug 19 2025