Citigroup has expressed optimism following its December survey that highlights a surge in premium-mass players within Macau's casinos. Despite the approaching visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping, set to commemorate the 25th anniversary of Macau's handover to China, the bank's analysts, George Choi and Timothy Chau, noted a reassuring stability in the market. The survey's findings reinforced Citigroup’s confidence in their December 2024 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast of MOP18.5 billion, a figure they predict will remain unchanged from the previous month. The analysts remarked, "We held very low expectations going into Macau last Friday," acknowledging the looming political events as a potential dampener yet finding solace in the robust presence of premium-mass players.
Anticipated Slowdown Fails to Materialize
Citigroup noted Macau's six gaming operators were anticipating a potential decline in activity as December approached. However, despite a noticeable 8% reduction in dealer-operated baccarat tables and a 4% decrease in average mass baccarat minimum bets compared to last year, the market dynamics painted a positive picture. The highlight was the 26% year-on-year rise in the premium-mass player count, exemplifying a resilient demand amidst economic and political pressures.
Additionally, wager values per player remained robust, exceeding HKD20,000, while exceptionally high-rolling 'whales' were identified, with 21 such players observed, marking a slight increase from December 2023. These 'whales' are defined as individuals who wager a minimum of HKD100,000 per bet, with the average wager for these high-stakes players rising to HKD191,905, reflecting a 9% increase from last year.
Historical Comparisons and GGR Predictions
Drawing parallels with historical data, Citigroup analysts highlighted similar trends witnessed during President Xi's last visit for Macau's 20th anniversary. Back in December 2019, the survey purported a minor decline in premium mass wagers along with a drop in the average mass baccarat minimum bet from the previous year. Such historical context has shaped Citigroup’s current expectations, as they foresee December 2024 to mimic trends from that period. Despite a reported 8% depreciation in premium-mass wagers compared to December 2023, the total wager value surged by 17%, illustrating substantial betting activity within the premium segment. The number of premium-mass players was recorded at 510, denoting a 26% annual increase, with the average mass baccarat minimum bet noted to decrease slightly to HKD1,977. In light of these observations, Citigroup remains steadfast in its GGR projection of MOP18.5 billion, suggesting a steady finish for the year.
Source: Plenty of Premium Punters in Macau Amid Dec Survey: Citi, GGRAsia, December 2024.
Posted by Wizard
Dec 16 2024
Dec 16 2024
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